LI AUTO(02015) 民生证券·2025-03-15 13:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 113.20 HKD per share [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 144.46 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8.03 billion RMB, a decrease of 32.0% year-on-year [1][10]. - The company is focusing on electric vehicles and intelligent driving technology, with new models set to launch in 2025, which are anticipated to drive sales growth [7][8]. - The company has a strong cash reserve and is continuously investing in charging infrastructure, with 1,900 supercharging stations and over 10,000 charging piles established across 31 provinces and 214 cities as of March 2025 [6][8]. Revenue Summary - In Q4 2024, the total revenue reached 44.27 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The automotive business revenue was approximately 42.64 billion RMB, also showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [2][3]. - The total vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 amounted to 159,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [2][3]. Profitability Summary - The gross profit for the automotive business in Q4 2024 was 8.39 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 19.7%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The operating profit for Q4 2024 was 3.70 billion RMB, with an operating margin of 8.4%, showing an improvement of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, with corresponding revenue expected to be around 23.4 billion to 24.7 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year decline of 8.7% to 3.5% [6][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 165.36 billion, 202.45 billion, and 222.69 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 10.11 billion, 13.46 billion, and 16.54 billion RMB [10][11].