AIA-友邦保险：2024年年报点评：NBV表现出色同比+18%，加推16亿美元股份回购计划-20250316

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) [8] Core Insights - AIA Group reported a strong performance with a 18% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [8] - The company achieved a net profit of$ 6.84 billion, reflecting an 84% year-on-year growth, with a significant increase of 133% in the second half of the year [8] - The embedded value reached $69 billion, up 4% year-on-year, with an operating return on embedded value increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 14.9% [8] - The expected final dividend per share is 130.98 Hong Kong cents, a 10% increase compared to the previous year [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total insurance revenue for 2023 was$ 17.514 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.32% [8] - After-tax operating profit for 2023 was $6.213 billion, showing a decline of 3.24% year-on-year [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was$ 0.35, with projections for 2024 at $0.64 [8] New Business Value (NBV) - The annualized new premium (ANP) for 2023 was$ 8.61 billion, up 14% year-on-year [8] - The total NBV for the year was $4.71 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [8] - The NBV margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [8] Regional Performance - NBV in Hong Kong increased by 23% to$ 1.76 billion, accounting for 34.8% of the total [8] - NBV in mainland China reached $1.22 billion, up 20% year-on-year [8] - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region also showed positive growth in NBV, with increases of 15%, 10%, and 15% respectively [8] Investment Strategy - The company has shifted its investment strategy, reducing fixed income allocation to 71.1% while increasing equity allocation to 22.3% [8] - The net investment yield for the year was 4.0%, with a total investment return of 4.9% [8] Capital Management - AIA Group has completed its previous$ 12 billion share buyback program and plans to implement a new $1.6 billion buyback plan within 2025 [8] - The current stock price corresponds to 1.12 times the estimated price-to-embedded value (PEV) for 2025, indicating a low valuation with a high margin of safety [8]