LI AUTO(02015) 国金证券·2025-03-16 01:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 revenue reached 44.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3%. The total vehicle deliveries for Q4 were 159,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [1][3]. - The company experienced a slight decline in gross margin, attributed to one-time settlements with suppliers, but overall performance met expectations. The net profit for the year 2024 is projected to be 10.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to face short-term pressure in 2025 due to increased competition in the extended-range vehicle segment, but new electric vehicle launches are anticipated to drive future growth [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - Q4 2024 saw a total revenue of 442.7 billion yuan, with automotive revenue contributing 426.4 billion yuan. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 269,000 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 20.3%, with a slight decline expected for the full year 2024, where the gross margin is projected at 20.5% [2][4]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.4%, down from the previous year [2][4]. Future Projections - The company forecasts vehicle deliveries of 88,000 to 93,000 units in Q1 2025, with expected revenue between 23.4 billion and 24.7 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline [3]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.49 billion, 17.32 billion, and 24.58 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.2, 13.8, and 9.8 [4][7]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly in the extended-range vehicle market, which may impact the company's short-term performance [5]. - The company’s strategic focus on intelligent driving, AI, and robotics is expected to enhance its long-term growth potential despite current pressures [4].