AIA(01299) 国金证券·2025-03-16 03:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated significant growth resilience, with a reported NBV increase of 18% year-on-year to 4.712 billion in 2024, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year. The margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5%, and annualized new business increased by 14% [2]. - Breakdown by regions: - Mainland China: NBV increased by 20%, annualized new business by 10%, and margin improved by 4.9 percentage points to 56.1% [2]. - Hong Kong: NBV rose by 23%, with local and MCV growth at 24% and 22% respectively, and margin increased by 8 percentage points to 65.5% [2]. - Southeast Asia (Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia): Thailand's NBV grew by 15%, Singapore's by 15% with a 52% increase in annualized new business, and Malaysia's by 10% [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company reported a 7% increase in after-tax operating profit, with a target of returning 1.6 billion share buyback plan, including 1 billion [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in NBV, with projected growth rates of 9%, 10%, and 10% for 2025-2027, and operating profit growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 9% respectively [4]. - The estimated PEV for 2025 is 1.20 times, which is at the 10th percentile of valuations since 2018 [4].