全球宏观经济研究：特朗普政策对美国经济及中国外需的影响

Group 1: Trump Administration's Policy Actions - Trump signed 89 executive orders, 18 presidential statements, and 23 other documents within the first 52 days of his administration, a threefold increase compared to the same period in 2017[4] - The establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) aims to save $550 billion, with 84,500 federal employees affected by buyout plans and layoffs[7] - The administration's trade protection measures include a 10$156.8 billion in January, contributing to an estimated 2.4% contraction in Q1 GDP[17] - Consumer confidence indices have declined, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 64.7 in February, down from 71.7[23] - Retail sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 0.9% in January, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[26] Group 3: Employment and Labor Market - The U.S. unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.14% in February, with government layoffs not yet fully reflected in the data[35] - The government sector added only 11,000 jobs in February, with significant layoffs expected due to the DOGE's efficiency measures[32] - The impact of government layoffs could potentially raise the unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points if 20% of federal employees are affected[35] Group 4: Real Estate and Inflation - Rising interest rates have led to a cooling real estate market, with new home sales down 10.5% month-on-month in January[38] - Inflation indicators show a slight decrease, with the CPI for all items at 2.8% year-on-year in February, down from 3.0% in January[41]