LI AUTO(02015) 平安证券·2025-03-17 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company has a clear rhythm in electric vehicle production and is accelerating iterations in intelligent driving technology. The L series is set for a significant upgrade in 2025, focusing on intelligent driving hardware enhancements [11][10]. - The company is expected to launch two new electric SUV models, i8 and i6, in the second half of 2025, with a more mature market entry compared to previous models [11]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for profitability due to a decrease in delivery volumes and increased discounts, but the second half of 2025 may exceed market expectations with the new model launches [11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 442.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, while the net profit for the same period was 35.2 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 31.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 144.46 billion CNY in 2024 to 271.34 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 232 billion CNY by 2027, indicating a significant rebound in profitability [6][14]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 21.5% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve to 8.6% [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 11.3% in 2024 to 18.9% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [14]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27.6 in 2024 to 9.6 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [14]. Delivery and Production Insights - The company reported a Q4 2024 delivery volume of 159,000 units, which was slightly below previous guidance but showed a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in delivery volumes, with expectations of 88,000 to 93,000 units, driven by promotional strategies [11].