蓄势而行：2040年全球汽车行业前景展望：为“马拉松”式变革做好长期准备

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive industry Core Insights - The automotive industry is undergoing a long-term transformation driven by new technologies and geopolitical factors, with significant changes expected over the next 15 years [2][3] - The future of the automotive industry will be shaped by four key trends summarized as "PACE": Polarization, Automation, Connectivity, and Electrification [2][9] - By 2040, the penetration rate of new electric vehicle (EV) sales is projected to reach 68% in a baseline scenario and 63% in a conservative scenario [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Transformation - The automotive industry is experiencing profound changes that challenge traditional perceptions, with new players capturing market share from established manufacturers [10][11] - The anticipated shift towards shared mobility solutions may be limited to urban areas, which contribute less than 10% of global private vehicle mileage [12][15] 2. Key Trends Reshaping the Automotive Industry 2.1 Polarization - The market is shifting from globalization to regionalization, with different regions developing at varying speeds due to geopolitical developments, regulatory differences, and consumer preferences [22][25] - The growth of the "Global South" is notable, with emerging markets like India expected to see significant GDP growth, while mature markets are reaching sales peaks [26][27] 2.2 Automation - Automation and artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to reshape the industry, with advancements in automated driving technologies facing challenges in scalability and consumer acceptance [35][36] - By 2040, various levels of automated vehicles are anticipated to be on the roads, but the process will be gradual and dependent on regional factors [37][39] 2.3 Connectivity - The concept of Software-Defined Vehicles (SDV) will dominate, requiring manufacturers to adapt their electronic and software architectures to enhance user experience and reduce costs [53][61] - The shift towards SDV will necessitate a new approach to vehicle development, emphasizing software updates and functionality throughout the vehicle's lifecycle [53][54] 2.4 Electrification - Electrification is becoming a central theme, with the rise of electric vehicles and their integration into future energy systems, such as vehicle-to-home and vehicle-to-grid technologies [64] - The global share of electric vehicles is increasing, with structural changes in the supply chain and emerging business models as the market evolves [64]