2025年1-2月宏观数据点评：内需全面发力，年初宏观经济保持较强增长动能

Economic Growth - In January-February 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points from December 2024[1][4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from December 2024[1][8] - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[1][12] Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector's added value growth slowed to 6.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from December 2024, primarily due to fewer calendar days[4][5] - Export delivery value growth for industrial enterprises fell by 2.6 percentage points to 6.2% compared to December 2024, influenced by new tariffs imposed by the U.S.[4][5] - Equipment manufacturing added value grew by 10.6%, and high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.1%, indicating strong industrial production momentum[5][16] Consumer Trends - Consumer confidence showed marginal improvement, with the consumer confidence index rising by 0.9 percentage points in February 2025[9][10] - Retail sales of optional consumer goods, excluding automobiles, saw significant growth, with categories like communication equipment and furniture increasing by 26.2% and 21.8% respectively[9][10] - Despite a 4.0% growth in retail sales, this level remains about half of pre-pandemic figures, indicating ongoing weak market demand[10][11] Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment, excluding electricity, grew by 5.6%, reflecting proactive macroeconomic policies and increased local government bond issuance[12][13] - Real estate investment declined by 9.8%, but the drop was less severe than in the previous year, suggesting a potential stabilization in the housing market[14][15] - Manufacturing investment increased by 9.0%, supported by policies aimed at upgrading the manufacturing sector and addressing supply chain issues[15][16]