银行行业月报：财政发力托底

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [24]. Core Insights - In February, the total social financing (社融) stock increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The new social financing added was 2.23 trillion yuan, which is a significant year-on-year increase. The total social financing stock reached 417.3 trillion yuan, indicating a clear trend of stable growth driven by policy factors, particularly the accelerated issuance of government bonds [4][10]. - The willingness of residents to increase leverage remains weak, with new RMB loans amounting to 1.01 trillion yuan in February, showing a year-on-year decrease. The total RMB loan balance reached 261.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.3% year-on-year, but with a month-on-month decline of 0.2% [4][11]. - The M2 money supply grew by 7% year-on-year in February, with no significant increase compared to the previous month. The increase in fiscal deposits was 1.64 trillion yuan year-on-year, exceeding the year-on-year increase in net government bond financing, suggesting that M2 growth may rise as fiscal deposits are fully utilized [5][19]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In February, the net financing of government bonds reached 1.7 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 1.1 trillion yuan. This increase effectively supports the performance of social financing [4][10]. Loan Dynamics - The corporate sector saw a new loan addition of 1.04 trillion yuan in February, which is a year-on-year decrease. The breakdown shows that short-term loans increased by 330 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 540 billion yuan [14]. M2 and Deposits - The total RMB deposits increased by 4.42 trillion yuan in February, with the total balance reaching 310.97 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [15][18]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the increase in government bonds will likely lead to a short-term recovery in the macro economy, with expectations of improved asset quality in the banking sector. The current dividend yield and valuation levels of bank stocks indicate a strong defensive attribute in the short term [5][19].