有色金属：减产风云再现，今年铜冶炼厂会减产吗？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" with expectations for overall sector returns to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that copper smelters are facing significant losses, with long-term contracts dropping to $21.25 per ton in 2025, a 73$80 per ton in 2024. Current spot processing fees have reached -$15.6 per ton, indicating a deteriorating profit situation for smelters [4][15]. - The report anticipates that overseas smelters may reduce production first, with companies like Glencore already halting operations at their PASAR smelter in the Philippines, which has a capacity of 200,000 tons [5][18]. - Domestic smelters in China are reluctant to cut production due to fears of losing market share and local government incentives to maintain high output levels, leading to a preference for maintenance rather than outright reductions [5][22]. - The supply of copper ore is expected to remain tight, with a projected global copper mine production increase of only 520,000 tons in 2025, primarily from existing large-scale projects [23][24]. - The report suggests that the processing fee (TC) will likely remain low in the coming years, with a supply-demand gap for copper concentrate anticipated in 2025-2026, which may lead to increased copper prices [26][28]. Summary by Sections Production and Supply Dynamics - The report indicates that the production capacity planned for Chinese smelters in 2025 is 1.1 million tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. This could lead to increased pressure on raw material supply and potential production cuts [28]. - The report also notes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan for high-quality development in the copper industry will limit new smelting capacity after 2026, despite existing capacity remaining substantial [28]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the copper market is experiencing a shift, with smelters increasingly relying on by-product prices for profitability, particularly sulfuric acid and precious metals [4][15]. - It is projected that the copper price may trend upwards due to supply-side disruptions and tight raw material availability, particularly in the latter half of 2025 [26][28].