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三七互娱:重点产品线跟踪点评:买量策略延续,关注新品《英雄没有闪》上线表现-20250317

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, with a downward adjustment from previous ratings [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new game "Heroes Don't Flash" has shown promising performance since its launch, potentially becoming a key product following "Seeking the Way to the Universe" [1]. - The company continues its large-scale user acquisition strategy, which has positively impacted sales and reputation [3]. - Despite the positive outlook for new products, the company faces short-term pressure on performance due to the decline of older products and high promotional costs [4]. Summary by Sections Product Performance - "Heroes Don't Flash" launched on February 27, 2025, achieving 350,000 downloads on TAPTAP by March 13, ranking 13th in the iPhone game bestseller list and topping the free game chart for 11 consecutive days [1]. - The game modifies the existing dark-themed gameplay, simplifying the interface and enhancing player engagement through a linear progression system [2]. Marketing Strategy - The company has significantly increased its marketing material for "Heroes Don't Flash," with daily material reaching four digits and peaking at over 40,000 sets within ten days post-launch [3]. - The marketing strategy focuses on user-generated content (UGC) and highlights gameplay features to improve user conversion rates [3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.339 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, but a net profit decline of 13.45% to 1.897 billion RMB [4]. - The report projects a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.537 billion RMB and 2.846 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 3.137 billion RMB [4]. Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 16.41 billion RMB in 2022 to 21.27 billion RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.55% [5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the upcoming years are 14, 13, and 11 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5].