俄乌冲突的推演及影响

Group 1: Conflict Dynamics - Recent signals for peace talks have increased, but conflicting interests hinder agreement[1] - Ukraine insists on full territorial restoration, including Crimea, and demands complete Russian withdrawal[2] - Russia seeks to maintain control over strategic territories rich in rare earth and titanium resources, and demands Ukraine's neutrality[1] Group 2: Potential for Ceasefire - A comprehensive ceasefire agreement is unlikely before mid-2025, with a higher chance of a phased agreement later in the year[2] - Ukraine's strong domestic support for resistance, bolstered by military aid from the UK, complicates negotiations[2] Group 3: Economic Implications - Peace agreements could reshape supply chains and stabilize commodity prices, with oil prices expected to stabilize around $70 per barrel post-ceasefire[3] - Natural gas prices may return to €30 per MWh, significantly lower than 2022 peaks, easing inflationary pressures[3] - Agricultural prices are projected to decline as Black Sea grain exports recover, potentially increasing Russian wheat exports by 200,000 tons[3]