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新消费方向2025年度投资策略：掘金新消费 新机遇
华源证券·2025-03-18 02:37

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The high-end makeup segment shows better growth potential compared to the mass market segment, with a projected CAGR of 10.8% from 2023 to 2028 for high-end makeup, while the mass market is expected to grow at 6.7% [8][9] - The Chinese cosmetics market experienced a rapid growth phase from 2018 to 2021, followed by a decline in 2022, but has since entered a positive growth phase starting in 2023 [8] - The ancient gold jewelry segment is expected to maintain strong growth potential, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, despite a slowdown in growth rate [21][22] - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is anticipated to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 11,634 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [27][28] - The trend of affordable ready-to-drink beverages is expected to emerge, with significant growth in lower-tier cities and a projected CAGR of 22.81% from 2023 to 2028 [31] - The toy market, particularly the trendy toy segment, is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 9.5% from 2023 to 2028 [35][36] Summary by Sections High-End Makeup - The high-end makeup segment is expected to outperform the mass market, with a CAGR of 10.8% from 2023 to 2028 [8] - The market size for high-end makeup is projected to grow significantly due to increasing consumer demand for quality and safety [8][9] Ancient Gold - The ancient gold jewelry market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, indicating strong growth potential [21][22] - The market size for ancient gold jewelry reached 1,573 billion yuan in 2023 [21] Ready-to-Drink Beverages - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is expected to reach 11,634 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.6% [27][28] - The market is driven by increasing consumer demand in lower-tier cities [31] Trendy Toys - The trendy toy market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5% from 2023 to 2028, with a market size of 626 billion yuan in 2023 [35][36] - The target demographic for trendy toys is expanding, particularly among younger consumers [35]