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消费:1-2月社零结构优化,可选品及餐饮显著升温
民银证券·2025-03-18 08:33

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, particularly in optional goods and dining, with a focus on structural improvements in retail sales [3][7]. Core Insights - Retail sales in January and February showed a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 4.5%. Excluding automobiles, the growth rate was 4.8% [3][7]. - The performance of optional goods such as clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry has improved, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 4.4%, and 5.4% respectively [4][16]. - The dining sector experienced its best performance since the second half of 2024, with overall dining revenue increasing by 4.3% [5][12]. - The government has introduced measures to boost consumption, particularly in dairy products, trendy retail, and leading sports footwear companies [5][12]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In January and February, retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with optional goods and dining showing significant improvement [3][7]. - The growth in retail sales of optional goods was driven by strong performance in clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry, alongside a high growth rate in sports and entertainment-related services [4][16]. Durable Goods - The report highlights that the national subsidy policy has positively impacted the performance of communication equipment and furniture, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.2% and 11.7% respectively [4][17]. - Despite a decline in the growth rate of home appliances due to installation issues during the Spring Festival, production data suggests that the subsidy effects are still present [4][17]. Essential Goods - The demand for beverages and tobacco remains relatively weak, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.5% for food, -2.6% for beverages, and 5.5% for tobacco [4][17]. Government Initiatives - The Central and State Council have issued a "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," focusing on establishing childcare subsidies, promoting domestic trendy products, and optimizing approval processes for cultural and sports events [5][12]. Online Retail and Logistics - Online retail sales growth has slightly decreased to 5% year-on-year, while express delivery volumes continue to show strong growth at 22.4% [30][32].