CATL(300750) 交银国际证券·2025-03-18 11:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 314.11, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of RMB 256.00 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a global inventory replenishment cycle, with strong performance in revenue and net profit for 2024 aligning with forecasts. The company has demonstrated robust profitability and a high dividend payout ratio of 50%, reflecting confidence in its growth [1][4]. - The report highlights the acceleration of global capacity expansion, particularly with the upcoming commissioning of a factory in Hungary, which is expected to enhance local supply in Europe despite a temporary decline in overseas revenue due to slowing demand [4][5]. - The company’s production capacity is projected to increase by 22% year-on-year to 676 GWh in 2024, with an improved capacity utilization rate of 76% compared to 70% in 2023 [4][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 362 billion, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to rise by 15% to RMB 50.7 billion. The gross margin is projected to improve to 24.4%, up 5.2 percentage points year-on-year [4][12]. - The report provides updated financial forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with revenues adjusted to RMB 447.2 billion and RMB 489.2 billion, respectively, reflecting a 1-2% increase from previous estimates. Net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 62.9 billion and RMB 68.0 billion [4][12]. - The report also notes a change in accounting policy affecting gross margin projections, leading to a downward adjustment of 2.8 and 3.0 percentage points for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][5]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of -3.76%, with a 52-week high of RMB 299.00 and a low of RMB 169.00. The market capitalization stands at approximately RMB 1,124.4 billion [3][4].