Dawn(002838) 招商证券·2025-03-19 05:16Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience rapid growth starting in 2025, driven by the expansion of modified plastics and thermoplastic elastomers, with significant contributions from products like DVA and copolyester [6][9]. - The company has a strong anti-cyclical capability in its main business, with multiple new product developments that, once scaled, will significantly optimize product and profit structures [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading domestic producer of thermoplastic elastomers (TPV) and modified plastics, focusing on high-performance polymer composite materials [12]. - It has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.7% in revenue from 2016 to 2024, with a stable growth trajectory in its modified plastics business, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue [6][16]. Market Trends - The thermoplastic elastomer market is gradually achieving domestic substitution, with increasing demand in automotive and medical sectors [30][32]. - The modified plastics market in China has shown significant growth, expanding from approximately 101.4 billion yuan in 2014 to 283.2 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 12.1% [42][46]. Product Development - The company is focusing on high-barrier products like DVA, which, if successfully scaled, could open up a market worth billions [7][9]. - The company is also advancing in the recycling of plastics, collaborating with Haier to enhance its PCR plastic recycling business, aligning with global trends towards sustainable materials [7][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 60.04 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and net profit expected to reach 1.78 billion yuan, reflecting a 26% increase [8][9].