CHINA RES BEER(00291) 银河证券·2025-03-19 06:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance in 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see an improvement in its performance in 2025, with early signs of recovery observed in the first two months of the year. The report anticipates an increase in both revenue and profit margins, particularly in the beer segment, driven by a recovery in consumption scenarios and effective management strategies [4][5]. - The beer business is projected to recover in terms of sales volume and profit margins, with a focus on high-end products showing resilience. The white liquor segment is also expected to grow, supported by strong sales of key products [4][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to increase from 38,635 million RMB in 2024 to 40,395 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.6% [4][5]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 4,739 million RMB in 2024 to 5,388 million RMB in 2025, with a profit growth rate of 13.7% [4][5]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 42.6% in 2024 to 43.1% in 2025 [4][5]. - The diluted EPS is anticipated to increase from 1.46 RMB in 2024 to 1.66 RMB in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 18.15 to 15.96 [4][5]. Business Segments - Beer Segment: The report highlights a decline in beer revenue in 2024 but anticipates a recovery in 2025, supported by increased consumption and a focus on premium products. The average selling price (ASP) is expected to grow, contributing to improved profit margins [4][5]. - White Liquor Segment: The white liquor business is projected to grow, driven by strong sales of high-end products. The report notes that the product structure is favorable, with key products significantly contributing to revenue [4][5].