CHINA RES BEER(00291) 华鑫证券·2025-03-19 05:51Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a focus on premiumization and cost reduction leading to improved profitability [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, particularly in the "Summary" brand, which achieved a 35% increase [8] - Future earnings are projected to improve as the company maintains its focus on high-end products while optimizing operations and costs [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.76%, and a net profit of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit is approximately 4.509 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue was 36.486 billion yuan, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 yuan [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with notable increases in Heineken and other premium brands [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase, with an EBITDA of 847 million yuan, up 7.9% [8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.381 billion yuan, 41.839 billion yuan, and 43.150 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.72 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [11][13]