宏观观察2025年第07期（总第579期）：近期我国国债收益率持续下行的原因及建议＊

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on the bond market, particularly on government bonds, due to the continuous decline in yields and favorable monetary policy conditions [4][12][36]. Core Insights - The rapid decline in government bond yields in 2024, with the 10-year yield dropping from 2.56% at the beginning of the year to 1.68% by year-end, has raised concerns about potential market overheating and the need for regulatory intervention [5][11][12]. - The report highlights that the significant increase in bond trading volume, particularly among small and medium-sized banks and various investment institutions, has been a major factor driving the rapid decline in yields [12][16][26]. - Recommendations include enhancing communication and regulatory oversight to guide the market back to rationality, and investment institutions should optimize asset allocation strategies to improve risk management capabilities [36][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Recent Trends in Government Bond Yields - Government bond yields have experienced a rapid decline, with the 10-year yield reaching historical lows, prompting widespread market attention [4][11]. - The decline in yields has been characterized by a significant drop that exceeds the reduction in policy interest rates, indicating a potential "overshooting" phenomenon [11][12]. Section 2: Factors Influencing Yield Decline - The report attributes the decline in yields to the continuous easing of monetary policy, which has created favorable conditions for a bull market in bonds [12][14]. - The central bank's actions, including multiple rate cuts and liquidity injections, have significantly influenced the bond market dynamics [12][14][16]. Section 3: Investment Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investment institutions have increasingly allocated more to bond assets, particularly government bonds, leading to a substantial rise in trading volumes [16][26]. - In 2024, the bond market's total trading volume reached 416.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.56%, with government bonds accounting for 30.05% of total trading [16][17]. Section 4: Recommendations for Regulatory and Investment Strategies - The report suggests that regulatory bodies should enhance communication and oversight to stabilize investor sentiment and guide rational trading behaviors [36][38]. - Investment institutions are encouraged to optimize their asset allocation strategies and improve risk management to mitigate potential market risks [39].