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英伟达业绩指引均超预期,Blackwell增长强劲
财通证券·2025-03-13 11:35

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the industry [1] Core Insights - NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations with strong revenue and profit growth, driven by robust demand for the Blackwell series [4][9] - The demand from Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) remains strong, with significant capital expenditure (CapEx) growth anticipated in 2025 [15][19] - NVIDIA's competitive advantages over ASICs include greater flexibility, a richer ecosystem, and faster iteration speeds [24][25] - The Chinese market shows substantial demand for NVIDIA chips despite geopolitical challenges and increasing domestic competition [27][29] Summary by Sections 1. Blackwell Demand and NVIDIA's Performance - In FY4Q2025, NVIDIA achieved revenue of 39.33billion,ayearonyearincreaseof7839.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78%, surpassing market expectations of 38.1 billion [4][9] - Net profit for FY4Q2025 was 22.09billion,up8022.09 billion, up 80% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 19.57 billion [9][10] - Blackwell revenue reached 11billioninFY4Q2025,indicatingstrongdemand[13]2.DemandSide:CSPDemandandGrowthTheCapExofNorthAmericasfourmajorCSPsisprojectedtoreach11 billion in FY4Q2025, indicating strong demand [13] 2. Demand Side: CSP Demand and Growth - The CapEx of North America's four major CSPs is projected to reach 320 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 43.5% [19][21] - CSPs are increasingly focusing on AI infrastructure investments, with significant growth in enterprise demand for NVIDIA's data center products [23] 3. Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA's GPUs offer superior general flexibility compared to ASICs, allowing customers to adapt their data centers based on varying needs [24][25] - The ecosystem built around NVIDIA's architecture has expanded significantly, making it challenging for competitors to integrate diverse chip solutions [25] 4. Chinese Market Dynamics - Major Chinese internet companies are ramping up their AI infrastructure investments, with ByteDance planning $20 billion in CapEx for 2025 [27] - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, NVIDIA's sales in China are expected to grow at a rate similar to the overall company growth of 78% [27][29] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing and domestic alternatives, highlighting companies such as Haiguang Information, Xiechuang Data, and others [29][30]