市场周观察03月第1期：以史为鉴，AI+行情怎么走？

Group 1 - The report highlights the explosive growth of the DeepSeek and robotics themes since the Spring Festival, driven by significant events such as the participation of DeepSeek's CEO in a government meeting and the performance of YuTree Robotics during the Spring Festival Gala [1][10]. - From a valuation perspective, the report notes that since the rebound on September 24, the valuation of the Sci-Tech 50 index has consistently been higher than that of DeepSeek and YuTree Robotics, but the robotics concept has gained momentum since the New Year, surpassing the Sci-Tech 50 [1][10]. - The report indicates that while DeepSeek has shown significant price increases, its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio remains volatile at around 60X [1][10]. Group 2 - The report states that AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) has shown higher elasticity compared to robotics, with AIGC outperforming in both maximum and interval price increases [2][13]. - It is noted that AIGC's overall valuation is generally higher than that of robotics, primarily due to AIGC's focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), while robotics leans more towards mechanical hardware [2][13]. - The report emphasizes that despite AIGC's higher elasticity, its overall variance is significantly greater than that of robotics, indicating a mix of quality within AI-related concepts [2][14]. Group 3 - The report outlines three phases of the ChatGPT market in 2023, with the first phase characterized by foreign capital inflows and a strong performance of ChatGPT concepts, the second phase seeing a shift towards hardware and domestic models following the release of GPT-4.0, and the third phase marked by a surge in domestic large models [3][20]. - It suggests that after experiencing a broad rally driven by DeepSeek, a second wave of differentiated market performance is expected post the National People's Congress [3][20]. Group 4 - The report identifies capital expenditure as a key driver for the long-term trend of DeepSeek, noting that the ChatGPT market has not been smooth, with significant fluctuations but a general trend towards recovery as performance expectations are gradually met [4][20]. - It highlights that AI+ has already gone through a broad rally led by DeepSeek, and anticipates a second round of market activity driven by substantial capital expenditures from major internet companies like Alibaba [4][21]. Group 5 - The report indicates that the spring market dynamics are weakening, with a shift in focus from small-cap to large-cap stocks, particularly in sectors that previously underperformed, such as military, satellite, and new energy [4][24]. - It emphasizes that the Sci-Tech sector remains a long-term investment avenue, with a focus on self-controlled AI+ technologies, including robotics, intelligent driving, cloud computing, and computing power [4][24].