东鹏饮料（605499）：全年高增收官，扬帆起航正当时

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a current price of 226.67 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage achieved a total revenue of 15.84 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.33 billion CNY, up 63.1% year-on-year. The company plans to list in Hong Kong, and its overseas business is expected to contribute to long-term excess returns [7]. - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a focus on energy drinks and electrolyte beverages, which are expected to drive future growth [7][8]. - The national expansion strategy is progressing well, with significant revenue growth in various regions, particularly outside Guangdong [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.84 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.33 billion CNY. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 3.28 billion CNY, a 25.1% increase year-on-year [7]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a net profit of 4.42 billion CNY, 5.58 billion CNY, and 6.94 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 8.50 CNY, 10.74 CNY, and 13.35 CNY [2][10]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from energy drinks reached 13.30 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 28.5%. The electrolyte beverage segment saw a remarkable increase of 280.4%, generating 1.50 billion CNY [7][10]. - The company is also expanding its product offerings in other beverage categories, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the coming years [9]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin improved to 44.8% in 2024, up 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and increased sales volume [7]. - The net profit margin reached a historical high of 21.0%, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency [7]. Market Expansion - The company has increased its national distribution network, adding 500,000 new retail points, bringing the total to nearly 4 million [7]. - Revenue from regions outside Guangdong grew by 49.6%, indicating successful penetration into new markets [7]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the energy drink segment, with projected sales growth rates of 26%, 22%, and 20% for 2025-2027 [8]. - The electrolyte beverage segment is expected to become a significant growth driver, with forecasted sales growth rates of 82%, 52%, and 42% over the same period [8].