Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK13.20 [1][9]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong performance in 2024, with revenue growth of 9.7% and a significant increase in adjusted net profit by 187%, exceeding management's initial guidance [6][7]. - Despite the strong 2024 results, management's conservative guidance for 2025 suggests low double-digit revenue growth and single-digit adjusted net profit growth, which has led to market dissatisfaction and a subsequent drop in stock price [7][8]. - The current valuation of JD Logistics appears attractive, trading at 10.6 times the 2025 P/E ratio, which is lower compared to peers in the logistics sector [8][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating remains "Buy" with a target price adjustment from HK23.28, reflecting a 2% increase [2][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached RMB 182,838 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 205,510 million for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 12.4% [10][20]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 6,867 million, with expectations of RMB 7,353 million for 2025, marking a 7.1% increase [10][20]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to RMB 1.18, up from RMB 1.07, reflecting a 10% increase [2][14]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 3.6% for 2025, slightly improving from previous estimates [14][20]. Valuation - The DCF model indicates a target price of HK$23.28, with a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [15][16]. - The current stock price implies a significant discount compared to the target price, suggesting limited downside risk [8][15].
京东物流（02618）：一系列业绩表现强劲，管理层2025年指引依然保守