宏观经济分析报告：政策呵护下的经济走势展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a "看好" (optimistic) investment rating, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [16]. Core Insights - 2025 marks the end of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," with macroeconomic policy aimed at overcoming demand insufficiency being the core focus for the year [2][3]. - The Chinese economy is currently facing pressures from insufficient demand, with challenges in investment, consumption, and exports. The real estate market has been in deep adjustment for four years, affecting related industries like construction and building materials [4]. - The central economic work conference has prioritized "boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand" as the main task for 2025, with a GDP growth target of around 5% set during the national two sessions [5][6]. - With policy support, the economy is expected to see a moderate recovery in 2025, with an emphasis on structural optimization and high-quality development [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Challenges of Insufficient Demand - The Chinese economy is under pressure from insufficient demand, with investment, consumption, and exports all facing challenges. The real estate market's prolonged adjustment has negatively impacted related sectors [4]. 2. Policy Measures: Boosting Domestic Demand and Structural Optimization - The government plans to stimulate short-term demand through measures like consumption vouchers and tax incentives, while also focusing on enhancing the investment environment and increasing infrastructure spending [5]. - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new government debt is planned for 2025, primarily directed towards infrastructure and public services [5]. 3. National Two Sessions: High-Quality Development and Structural Reforms - The national two sessions have outlined a GDP growth target of around 5%, emphasizing a balance between stable growth and high-quality development [6]. - Continued support for supply-side structural reforms and a focus on emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology are highlighted [6]. 4. Economic Trend Outlook for 2025 - The economy is expected to recover moderately, with an increase in the share of consumption and investment, and a decrease in export dependency. Emerging industries are projected to maintain rapid growth [7][8]. - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize gradually, alleviating downward pressure on prices [8].