Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The dairy farming industry is cyclical, with supply being the main factor affecting cycles. The domestic supply of raw milk is approximately 87%, while imports account for about 13%. The report anticipates a stabilization and potential rebound in raw milk prices by 2025 due to industry capacity reduction [5][6][16]. - The company, YouRan Dairy, is the largest raw milk supplier globally and has a comprehensive business model covering the entire dairy industry chain. The report highlights that the company is expected to see significant improvements in apparent profits as raw milk prices rise [7][27][36]. - The financial forecasts predict revenue growth from 210.12 billion to 242.81 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, with a substantial increase in net profit from -0.05 billion to 23.69 billion CNY during the same period [8][44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - YouRan Dairy's latest closing price is 2.60 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 101.21 billion HKD. The company has a total share capital of 3.893 billion shares and an asset-liability ratio of 68.71% [4]. Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the dairy industry is experiencing a phase of capacity reduction, which is expected to lead to a stabilization of raw milk prices in 2025. The average price of raw milk has been below production costs, prompting a decrease in the national dairy cow population by 2.1% year-on-year [6][19][23]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong cash flow performance, with operating cash flows increasing from 22.66 billion CNY in 2021 to 43.9 billion CNY in 2023. Despite apparent profit losses due to declining raw milk prices, the company's financial health remains robust [37][36]. - The report forecasts significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 210.12 billion, 224.83 billion, and 242.81 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit is projected to improve dramatically from -0.05 billion CNY in 2024 to 23.69 billion CNY in 2026 [8][44]. Market Position - YouRan Dairy is positioned as a leader in the dairy industry, with a comprehensive supply chain that includes breeding, feed, and dairy farming. The company has a strong partnership with Yili, which is both its largest shareholder and customer, accounting for 94.28% of its raw milk sales [31][30].
优然牧业（09858）：25年原奶价格或企稳回升，优然有望迎来重估