BAOFENG ENERGY(600989) 华创证券·2025-03-17 01:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][20]. Core Views - Baofeng Energy's performance in FY 2024 slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 32.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.338 billion yuan, up 12.16% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in profit margins due to recent declines in coal prices, which have positively impacted the company's price differentials [2][9]. - The company is positioned as a leader in coal chemical projects, particularly in Xinjiang, with expectations for substantial profit contributions from new projects in the coming years [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY 2024, Baofeng Energy achieved: - Total revenue: 32.983 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.2% for 2025E projected at 43.8% [4][10]. - Net profit: 6.338 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 12.2% for 2025E at 111.1% [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.86 yuan for 2024A, projected to rise to 1.82 yuan in 2025E [4][10]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with significant growth expected in 2025 [4][10]. Market and Operational Insights - The report notes a recovery in profit margins in Q4 2024, primarily due to the resolution of maintenance impacts and contributions from new projects in Inner Mongolia [2][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable coal price environment, with prices dropping from a peak of 576 yuan/ton to 487 yuan/ton, enhancing theoretical price differentials [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of energy security and the acceleration of coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to future profits [2][9].