轻工社零数据月度跟踪：1-2月家具社零同比+11.7%，住宅销售降幅收窄-2025-03-18

Core Insights - The furniture retail sales in January-February 2025 increased by 11.7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [4] - The overall retail sales of consumer goods in January-February 2025 reached 8.37 trillion yuan, growing by 4.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in sales of replacement-related products [4] - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in residential sales area, down 3.4% year-on-year, which is a 10.7 percentage point improvement compared to the previous year [4] Retail Sales Performance - In January-February 2025, the retail sales of furniture reached a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, up from 8.8% in the previous period, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9 percentage points [4] - Daily necessities retail sales grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while textile and apparel sales saw a positive shift with a 3.3% increase, reversing a previous decline [4] - Cultural and office supplies experienced a significant growth of 21.8% year-on-year, marking an increase of 12.7 percentage points from the previous period [4] Real Estate Market Trends - The residential sales area in January-February 2025 decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, but this represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year's overall decline [4] - New residential construction area fell by 28.9% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 5.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [4] - The completion area of residential buildings decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the previous year, indicating a potential recovery trend [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the soft furniture sector, such as Gujia Home (603816.SH) and Oppein Home (603833.SH), which are expected to benefit from improved supply chain efficiency and management capabilities [4] - Attention is also drawn to high-end mattress brands like Mousse (001323.SZ) and the home furnishing leader, Juran Home (000785.SZ), which are accelerating channel expansion and digital transformation [4] - The report highlights the mattress leader, Xilinmen (603008.SH), for its diverse product matrix and strong channel development [4]