两会后A股市场怎么看？

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market has been experiencing a rebound since the beginning of the year, driven by multiple factors including the Deep Seek catalyst and abundant liquidity, with the technology sector leading the gains [1][5][6] - As of March 14, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 26.9% since September 24, 2023, but the report suggests that this increase is still within the scope of a spring market rebound, requiring stronger fundamental and policy support for a larger-scale rally or bull market [1][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness and timing of policy implementation, the strength and sustainability of economic recovery, and the performance of Q1 earnings reports from listed companies to gauge future market direction [2][16] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the current market has entered a phase of high-low rotation, which is a typical signal of a market entering its later stages. Funds are flowing from previously high-performing sectors to lower-performing ones, indicating a search for rebound opportunities [2][13] - The report highlights that the Deep Seek model's launch has significantly boosted the AI industry chain, with notable capital expenditures from major companies like Alibaba, which reported a quarterly capital expenditure of 31.775 billion yuan, a 80% increase quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - The report discusses the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, noting that the actual damage from U.S. tariffs has been less than expected, which has contributed to a more favorable market sentiment [7][10] Economic Indicators - The report mentions that economic data has not shown significant signs of weakening as of February 2025, with manufacturing PMI remaining above the growth line, providing ongoing support for the stock market [7][11] - It also points out that the government's proactive fiscal and monetary policies, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and the issuance of long-term special bonds, are aimed at stabilizing the capital market and supporting economic growth [6][10] - The report anticipates that if the growth momentum in the second quarter exceeds expectations, the market may reach new highs, while a potential decline in growth momentum could lead to temporary market adjustments [16]