宏观研究：俄乌冲突的推演及影响

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to hinder peace negotiations, with significant divergence in the interests of the involved parties [1][2][22] - A comprehensive ceasefire agreement is unlikely to be reached in the first half of 2025, with a potential for a phased agreement later in the year [2][28] - A peace agreement could lead to a restructuring of supply chains and stabilization of commodity prices, particularly in energy and agricultural sectors [3][34] Summary by Sections Section 1: Pressure on Russia - The EU and the US have maintained pressure on Russia since the onset of the conflict, implementing extensive sanctions that have significantly impacted global supply chains and commodity prices [8][11] Section 2: Conflict Dynamics - Recent signals indicate a potential for negotiations, but the interests of Russia, Ukraine, and Western allies remain misaligned, complicating the path to a ceasefire [20][21] - Ukraine's demands include the complete withdrawal of Russian troops and NATO membership, while Russia seeks recognition of territorial claims and the lifting of sanctions [22][23] Section 3: Supply Chain and Price Stabilization - Energy prices are expected to gradually decline, with Brent crude oil stabilizing around $70 per barrel post-ceasefire, significantly lower than during the conflict [3][42] - Agricultural prices, particularly for wheat, are projected to decrease as Black Sea exports resume, benefiting importing countries and enhancing food security [3][46] Section 4: Economic Implications for China - The conflict's de-escalation is expected to facilitate trade between China and Russia, although energy import prices for China may rise [3][12] Section 5: Negotiation Phases - The first phase of negotiations will likely focus on restoring Russia's international trade status, with financial and trade restrictions being key discussion points [29][31] - The gradual lifting of sanctions is anticipated to restore Russia's position in global markets, particularly in energy and agriculture [32][34]