CMSK(001979) 华泰证券·2025-03-19 02:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 12.52 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 178.95 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.04 billion RMB, a decrease of 36.09% [1][2]. - The company has successfully established a REITs platform with a management area of approximately 590,000 square meters, generating revenue of 813 million RMB [2]. - Despite a decline in sales, the company is focusing on high-quality land acquisitions, with 90% of land purchases concentrated in core cities, particularly first-tier cities [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company experienced a 1.4% increase in settlement revenue, but the main reasons for the profit decline were a 1.5 percentage point drop in gross margin to 15.6% and increased impairment provisions due to falling property prices, totaling 6.03 billion RMB, a 150% year-on-year increase [2]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.9353 RMB for every 10 shares [1]. Land Acquisition Strategy - The company adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, with a total land purchase amount of 48.6 billion RMB and a land acquisition intensity of 22% [3]. - In the second half of 2024, the company plans to strengthen its investment efforts, with land acquisition intensity reaching 70% and 67% in Q3 and Q4, respectively [3]. Financing and Share Buyback - The company raised 32.43 billion RMB in public market financing at a comprehensive cost of 2.99%, a decrease of 48 basis points year-on-year [4]. - The company announced a share buyback plan amounting to 351 million to 702 million RMB, representing 0.25% to 0.49% of the total share capital, with 0.155% already repurchased by the end of February 2025 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) and book value per share (BVPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.46, 0.53, 0.62 RMB and 12.52, 12.85, 13.28 RMB, respectively [5][22]. - The target price is set at 12.52 RMB, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous target of 13.20 RMB due to lowered earnings expectations [5].