太平洋证券策略日报（2025.03.18）-2025-03-19

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows a mixed performance with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds slightly rising, while the 30-year bond experiences a slight decline. The bond market has fully priced in the interest rate cut expectations, and the technical support for the 10-year bond has stabilized after hitting a key level [3][17][20] - The A-share market experienced a day of fluctuations, with the ChiNext index leading the gains. The technology sector's long-term bull market is not over, but short-term trading is crowded, leading to potential volatility. Investors are advised to take profits and focus on low-position stocks in dividends, consumption, and healthcare [3][23] - The US stock market continues to rebound, but a mid-term adjustment is expected to remain. The market is shifting from "Trump Put" trading to "Trump Recession," indicating a potential monthly level adjustment. Investors should wait for long-term buying opportunities [3][27] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.2266, down 133 basis points from the previous close. The market is betting on a European "revival" narrative, leading to a significant appreciation of the Euro and a decline in the USD index. The short-term USD index is expected to correct before choosing a direction [4][31] - The CNY/USD has strong support around 7.1, and due to ongoing trade war expectations, it is difficult to break above this level. The medium to long-term outlook suggests a potential depreciation of the RMB, with the offshore RMB expected to reach 7.5-7.6 in 2025 [4][31] Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.38%, with precious metals and oil sectors leading the gains, while coal, construction materials, and non-ferrous metals lagged. The index is currently at the lower end of its range, suggesting a potential opportunity for long positions [4][35]