黄金周报（2025.3.10-2025.3.16）:市场避险情绪再度升温，金价突破3000美元/盎司-2025-03-19

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on the gold market, with expectations of high volatility and potential price increases in the near term [1]. Core Viewpoints - The market's risk aversion has intensified, leading to a new high in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching $2993.60 per ounce, a 2.60$2993.60 per ounce, up 2.60% [4][7]. - The international gold basis (spot-futures) fell significantly, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8]. - The gold T+D spot price also rose, reflecting strong market interest and trading activity [4][7]. Holding Analysis - Global gold ETF holdings increased by 12.07 tons, reaching 960.41 tons, indicating a growing interest in gold investments [17]. - The trading volume for domestic gold T+D rose by 4.89% compared to the previous week, suggesting a rebound in market activity [17]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - U.S. inflation expectations have shown a slight increase, with short-term expectations rising to 3.1% for the next year, while long-term expectations remain stable [21][22]. - Recent consumer confidence data indicates a decline, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 57.9, the lowest in over two years, reflecting growing economic concerns [25]. Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - The report notes that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain interest rates, influenced by the recent inflation data [38]. Dollar Index Trends - The U.S. dollar index experienced a slight decline, closing at 103.74, influenced by mixed economic signals and consumer sentiment [39]. International Events Tracking - Geopolitical risks have escalated, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, which may continue to impact gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [44].