Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][25] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 8.0% year-on-year in 2024, totaling 18.454 billion yuan, primarily due to weak offline foot traffic and channel restructuring. However, net profit showed resilience, increasing by 0.2% to 491 million yuan, supported by improved gross margin and effective cost management strategies [1][3][25] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online channels, with the proportion of revenue from all-channel sales rising to 28%, a year-on-year increase of 16%. Key drivers include a doubling of sales on Douyin and the integration of localized live streaming with national inventory [2][3][25] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 34.2%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, due to strict discount control and inventory optimization. Operating profit margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%, while net profit margin rose by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7% [1][3][25] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 3.2% year-on-year to 4.47 billion yuan, with net profit dropping 17.3% to 150 million yuan, attributed to the same factors affecting overall performance [1][2] Future Outlook - Management projects stable revenue and profit for 2025, with a target of maintaining revenue at the same level as 2024. The gross margin and operating profit margin are expected to remain stable, with a focus on adjusting the number of direct stores based on market trends [2][3][25] - The company plans to increase the all-channel revenue share to 30% and aims to open 100 new stores for new brands, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue [2][3] Valuation - The target price for the company is set between 0.59 and 0.69 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 6-7x for 2025. The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 490 million, 540 million, and 600 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 0%, 11%, and 10% respectively [3][4][25]
宝胜国际（03813）：024年收入承压盈利维稳，线上全渠道占比持续提升