CHINA RES BEER(00291) 光大证券·2025-03-20 00:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (0291.HK) with a current price of HKD 30.05 [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see both volume and price increases in 2025, with a high certainty of profit margin improvement [1] - The beer business showed resilience in a complex environment, with high-end products maintaining rapid growth [8] - The white liquor business has achieved significant growth through strategic brand building and market expansion [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 38.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, and a net profit of CNY 4.74 billion, down 8% [5] - The core EBIT for 2024 was CNY 6.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] Beer Business - In 2024, the company sold 10.87 million kiloliters of beer, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the average selling price increased by 1.5% to CNY 3,355 per kiloliter [6] - High-end and above product sales grew over 9% year-on-year, with the company’s high-end beer sales ranking among the industry leaders [6][8] - The company’s online business GMV grew over 30% year-on-year, leading the overall instant retail beer market [6] White Liquor Business - The white liquor business revenue grew by 4% in 2024, with EBITDA increasing by 0.5% [6] - The sales volume of major products in the white liquor segment increased by 35%, contributing over 70% to the business revenue [10] - The company aims for double-digit revenue growth in the white liquor business in 2025, focusing on brand building and market share enhancement [10] Future Outlook - The company expects improved beer sales in 2025 due to economic recovery and favorable market conditions [8] - The introduction of the "Three Precision Principles" aims to streamline operations and reduce costs, potentially enhancing profitability [10] - The forecast for net profit in 2025 is CNY 5.31 billion, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year [11]