CITIC Steel(000708) 国盛证券·2025-03-20 02:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its leading position in the special steel industry and improving production capacity integration [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a limited decline in performance, with a revenue of 109.2 billion yuan in 2024, down 4.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.126 billion yuan, down 10.41% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share (EPS) was 1.02 yuan, with a proposed dividend of 5.07 yuan per 10 shares [1][2]. - The company's resilience is highlighted as its profit decline is less severe compared to the overall industry, where the average profit drop for major steel enterprises was 50.3% [2]. - The long-term demand for special steel is expected to grow due to favorable manufacturing policies and the maturation of the steel industry, leading to a potential recovery in sales gross margins [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 5.126 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.41% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 4.975 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year [2]. - The quarterly sales gross margins for 2024 were 12.31%, 12.30%, 12.51%, and 14.39%, with net profit margins of 5.00%, 4.98%, 4.46%, and 5.19% respectively [2]. - The company aims for a steel production target of 18.6 million tons in 2025, with an export volume target of 2.65 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.3% [3]. Product and Market Outlook - The sales volume of high-end products, such as bearing steel, increased by 6%, and the sales of automotive steel for domestic projects rose by 38% [3]. - The company’s focus on high-end special steel manufacturing is expected to support a trend of profit recovery, with projected net profits of 5.45 billion yuan, 5.97 billion yuan, and 6.30 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.6, 10.6, and 10.1 respectively [4][5].