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特步国际:2024年业绩点评:业绩符合预期,25H2主品牌推进DTC-20250320

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 13.577 billion yuan, down 5.36% year-on-year, primarily due to the divestment of a loss-making business. Excluding this factor, the revenue from continuing operations grew by 6.5% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.238 billion yuan, an increase of 20.23% year-on-year, benefiting from the divestment of the loss-making business. Adjusting for one-time tax benefits, the net profit growth was 10% [8] - The main brand, Xtep, is focusing on direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies, with e-commerce leading growth and offline channels being optimized. The company plans to convert 400-500 dealer stores to DTC by 2025 [8] - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, achieved over 1 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 57.2%. The company plans to increase flagship stores in high-tier cities in 2025 [8] - Gross margin improved by 2.8 percentage points to 43.2% in 2024, while the expense ratio saw a slight increase due to higher costs associated with the acquisition of Saucony and increased e-commerce expenses [8] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 slightly downward to 1.37 billion yuan and 1.57 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 1.77 billion yuan [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 14.346 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 13.577 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 14.313 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - Net profit for 2023 was 1.03 billion yuan, expected to rise to 1.238 billion yuan in 2024 and continue increasing to 1.769 billion yuan by 2027 [1] Brand Strategy - The main brand Xtep's revenue in 2024 was 12.327 billion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, with a focus on the running segment and a strong presence in major marathon events [8] - Saucony's revenue reached 1.25 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth across e-commerce, retail, and wholesale channels [8] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.2%, with the main brand's margin slightly declining to 41.8% while Saucony's margin improved significantly [8] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.23 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, with net cash increasing by 5.6% to 988 million yuan [8]