刚果（金）锡矿停产，锡价中枢有望继续上移

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has escalated, leading to significant supply disruptions in tin production, particularly from Alphamin Resources' Bisie mine, which is the third-largest tin mine globally. The mine's output for 2024 was projected at 17,300 tons, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin supply, with plans to increase production to 20,000 tons in 2025. If the mine remains closed until the end of the year, it could reduce global tin supply by 15,000 tons in 2025 [2][9][10] - The ongoing conflict has created uncertainty regarding the resolution of the situation, with peace talks between the DRC government and the M23 movement being postponed. Historical precedents suggest that previous ceasefire agreements have not been effective, indicating that the conflict may persist and continue to impact tin supply for an extended period [2][10] - The tightening supply of tin is putting pressure on smelting companies, particularly in China, which relies heavily on imported tin ore. In 2024, China is expected to import approximately 52,000 tons of tin ore, with over 20,000 tons coming from the DRC. The processing fees for tin concentrate have been declining, with fees for 40% tin concentrate dropping to 12,500 CNY/ton and for 60% tin concentrate to 8,500 CNY/ton, indicating ongoing pressure on smelting operations [3][10] - The combination of constrained supply and increasing demand driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, photovoltaic installations, and a recovering semiconductor cycle suggests a favorable outlook for tin prices. If Alphamin's production remains halted, the global tin supply-demand gap could reach 20,000 tons this year, leading to an upward shift in price levels [3][13] Summary by Sections Section 1: Supply Disruption - The suspension of mining operations at Alphamin's Bisie mine due to conflict in the DRC has led to a significant impact on global tin supply, with potential reductions in output for 2025 [2][9] - The DRC has become China's largest source of tin ore imports, further complicating the supply situation as domestic processing fees decline [3][10] Section 2: Market Dynamics - The ongoing conflict and its uncertain resolution are expected to have a prolonged effect on tin supply, with historical patterns indicating that ceasefires may not lead to lasting peace [2][10] - The demand for tin is expected to improve due to advancements in AI applications and growth in the electric vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, which could further support price increases [3][13]