美联储3月货币政策会议点评与展望：政策冲击不确定性增强，美联储短期内仍将保持观望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, indicating a pause in interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns and economic uncertainties [2][6][10]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, while expressing increased concern over economic uncertainties [2][3]. - Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. have been significantly downgraded, with the 2025 growth rate revised from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4% [2][8]. - The report highlights the impact of Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs and spending cuts, which have contributed to a decline in consumer confidence and market expectations for U.S. growth [6][11]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, assessing the impact of tariff policies on inflation before making further decisions on interest rates [9][10]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a reduction in the number of members expecting rate cuts this year, reflecting a cautious stance on inflation risks [7][8]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows a weakening trend, with the Atlanta GDP Now model predicting a 1.8% annualized decline in Q1 GDP, driven by low consumer spending growth of 0.4% [11][12]. - The report notes that inflation risks remain elevated, particularly due to the implementation of tariffs, which may lead to upward pressure on prices in the short term [7][12]. Future Projections - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement 2-3 rate cuts in the second half of the year, contingent on the evolving economic landscape and inflation trends [11][12]. - There is a possibility that inflation risks could limit the Fed's ability to cut rates as anticipated, especially if tariff impacts exceed current projections [12].