GON(002768) 申万宏源·2025-03-20 06:46Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Guoen Co., Ltd. [6][7] Core Views - Guoen Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading enterprise in the polymer materials sector, focusing on an integrated industrial platform. The company has been deeply involved in polymer materials for 20 years, with significant production capacities in modified plastics and composite materials. The dual growth engines of polymer materials and health aesthetics are expected to drive future growth, supported by continuous customer expansion and business optimization [6][7][28]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 20.058 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 22.263 billion yuan, growing at 11% [2]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 1.818 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 40.6% year-on-year. By 2025, net profit is expected to be 706 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 7.7% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.42 yuan in 2024 and 2.60 yuan in 2025, with a long-term compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [7][31]. Market Data - As of March 19, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 25.92 yuan, with a market capitalization of 4.581 billion yuan. The stock has a dividend yield of 0.69% based on the most recent dividend announcement [3][6]. Business Strategy and Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its modified plastics business, which is expected to maintain high growth due to increasing demand in the appliance and automotive sectors. The modified plastics market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% [6][28]. - Guoen Co., Ltd. is also focusing on the composite materials sector, particularly in the new energy vehicle supply chain, which includes charging stations and battery packs. The company has established strong relationships with major clients in this sector [6][28]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 8.3% in 2024 to 9.0% in 2026, driven by cost reductions and increased production efficiency [2][36]. - The report highlights that the company has been able to maintain a relatively low expense ratio, which has improved from 7.3% in 2018 to 4.9% in the first three quarters of 2024 [38]. Industry Position and Competitive Landscape - The modified plastics market in China is characterized by a low penetration rate, with a modification rate of only 25% compared to the global average of 50%. This indicates significant growth potential for the industry [45][57]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share as it continues to innovate and expand its product offerings in high-value applications [6][9].