ANTA SPORTS(02020) 国信证券·2025-03-20 08:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][40]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a core net profit growth of 16.5% in 2024, with a revenue increase of 13.6% to 70.83 billion RMB. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow to 11.93 billion RMB, excluding non-cash gains from Amer Sports [1][7]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 51.4% and has repurchased approximately 1.28 billion HKD worth of shares during the year [1][15]. - The management remains optimistic about the growth prospects of the sports consumption market in China, with expectations for significant growth across its brand portfolio [2][39]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Growth: The company reported a revenue of 70.83 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year increase. The core net profit is expected to reach 11.93 billion RMB, marking a 16.5% increase [1][7]. - Brand Performance: Revenue from the Anta brand reached 33.52 billion RMB, up 10.6%, while FILA's revenue grew by 6.1% to 26.63 billion RMB. Other brands saw a significant increase of 53.7% to 10.68 billion RMB [2][24]. - Profit Margins: The overall gross margin for 2024 is projected at 62.2%, a slight decrease from 62.6% in 2023. The operating profit margin is expected to be 23.4%, down from 24.6% [8][29]. Brand and Market Strategy - Anta Brand: The Anta brand is focusing on new retail formats and has launched successful products like the PG7 running shoes. The brand's revenue from e-commerce channels grew by 20.7% [2][19]. - FILA Brand: FILA's revenue growth is driven by its professional sports series and footwear. The brand aims to enhance its product functionality and quality while expanding its retail presence [22][23]. - Other Brands: Brands like Descente and KOLON have shown strong growth, with Descente's revenue increasing by over 35% and KOLON by more than 60% [24][26]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 13.48 billion RMB, 15.46 billion RMB, and 17 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 13.0%, 14.7%, and 10.0% [3][39]. - The target price has been revised to 113-118 HKD, based on the updated profit forecasts, corresponding to a PE ratio of 22-23x for 2025 [3][40].