八方股份（603489）：电踏车电机龙头，海外需求有望回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of electric bicycle motors and related electrical systems, with a strong capability in providing complete solutions for various types of electric bicycles [9] - The company is expected to face a decline in profit for 2024 due to geopolitical conflicts and inflation affecting overseas demand, with a projected net profit of 50-65 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.16%-60.89% [9] - Despite short-term challenges, the electric bicycle market is expected to recover in the long term, particularly in the U.S. where government incentives are likely to stimulate growth [9] - The company is committed to market responsiveness and continuous product innovation, launching new technologies and products to enhance user experience [9] - Profit forecasts indicate a recovery in net profit for 2025, with an expected increase of 97.8% year-on-year [9] Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.648 billion yuan, with a decline of 42.2% year-on-year, followed by a recovery to 1.539 billion yuan in 2025 [8][12] - Net profit is expected to be 128 million yuan in 2023, dropping to 58 million yuan in 2024, and recovering to 115 million yuan in 2025 [8][12] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve from 26.1% in 2024 to 30.8% in 2026 [12][13] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 and 2025 is projected at 126.3 and 63.9 respectively, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 2.59 and 2.55 [9][12] Business Segments - Electric bicycle motor sales are expected to decline by 45.66% in 2023 but recover with a growth rate of 30.63% in 2025 [12] - The integrated wheel motor segment is projected to remain stable with a slight decline of 2.15% annually [12] - The battery segment is expected to see a recovery with a growth rate of 20% in 2025 [12]