BEKE(BEKE) HTSC·2025-03-20 11:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.88, reflecting a 27x PE for 2025, which is higher than the global comparable company's average of 22.7x [4][28]. Core Insights - The company reported a 54.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, reaching 31.13 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations by 7% [1]. - The Gross Transaction Value (GTV) increased by 55.5% year-on-year to 1.14 trillion RMB, also surpassing expectations by 9% [1]. - The revenue growth across different segments includes existing homes (47.5%), new homes (72.7%), home decoration (12.8%), and rental services (108.7%) [1]. - Adjusted net profit decreased by 21.6% year-on-year to 1.34 billion RMB, falling short of expectations by 40%, primarily due to one-time expenses [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach 110.04 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 17.74% [6][22]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is 8.12 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 29.6% from previous estimates due to rising personnel costs and a declining take rate [4][22]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in market share in the existing home segment, projecting a 5-7 percentage point increase in market share in first-tier cities [2][13]. Segment Performance - The existing home business outperformed expectations with a 47.5% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, and GTV growth of 59.1%, particularly strong in first-tier cities [2]. - The new home business also exceeded expectations with a 72.7% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, and GTV growth of 49.3% [2]. - The home decoration segment showed a 12.8% year-on-year revenue growth, with a significant increase in contract amounts [3]. Operational Efficiency and Innovations - The company is leveraging AI tools to enhance operational efficiency, including AI-driven customer service and property management systems, which have shown improvements in operational metrics [15][18]. - The home decoration business is expected to achieve quarterly breakeven due to improved supply chain management and the introduction of new product offerings [3][16][17]. Market Context - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, particularly in existing homes, driven by favorable policies and a significant increase in transaction volumes [13]. - The rental business has seen a substantial increase in managed properties, with operational efficiencies improving customer satisfaction and reducing vacancy periods [14].