华润啤酒：啤酒业务高端化稳步发展，白酒业务摘要逆势增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, expecting a relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [19][18]. Core Views - The company's beer business is steadily progressing towards high-end products, while the white liquor segment is experiencing counter-cyclical growth [1][10]. - The company achieved total revenue of 38.635 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, and a net profit of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year [3][9]. - The high-end beer sales grew by over 9% year-on-year, with Heineken seeing close to 20% growth, and the overall product structure is upgrading with mid-range and above beer sales exceeding 50% for the first time [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 38.635 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.739 billion yuan, with EBIT at 4.567 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [3][9]. - The overall gross margin improved to 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the beer segment's gross margin at 41.1% [6][9]. Sales and Growth - The beer sales volume in 2024 was 10.874 million tons, with a price of 3,355 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.5% in volume but an increase of 1.5% in price year-on-year [4][5]. - The white liquor business generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 5.6 percentage points to 68.5% [5][6]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 6% for 2025, 5% for 2026, and 4% for 2027, with net profit growth expected at 9% for 2025 and 8% for the following years [9][12]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.59 yuan for 2025, 1.72 yuan for 2026, and 1.86 yuan for 2027 [9][12].