NOVEL(002014) 华福证券·2025-03-21 12:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.525 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.34%, and a net profit of 468 million yuan, up 14.63% year-on-year [3][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 986 million yuan, a 9.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 163 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 41.7% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company continues to enhance quality and efficiency, leveraging scale and overall synergy in production, which has contributed to resilient operations [5]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from various product lines for 2024 includes: - Color printing packaging: 2.477 billion yuan (down 2.92%) - Plastic soft packaging film: 724 million yuan (up 37.9%) - Aluminum-plated packaging: 58 million yuan (up 31.56%) - Ink business: 155 million yuan (down 0.1%) [5]. - The company’s domestic and international sales were 2.963 billion yuan and 452 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.3% and 18.84% [5]. Profitability and Cost Control - The company maintained a gross margin of 23.8% and a net margin of 13.4% for 2024, with improvements in Q4 to 25.9% and 16.7%, respectively [6]. - The company effectively managed expenses, reducing the overall expense ratio to 9.14%, down 0.95 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - A cash dividend of 6.2 yuan per 10 shares was declared, totaling 380 million yuan, which represents 81.18% of the annual net profit, yielding a dividend rate of 5.66% [6]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenue growth to reach 3.82 billion yuan in 2025, 4.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.36 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 7%, and 6%, respectively [6][8]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 520 million yuan, 570 million yuan, and 620 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 12%, 10%, and 8% [6][8].