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社服与消费视角点评1-2月国内宏观数据:社零平稳增长,提振消费行动或促消费意愿增长
中银证券·2025-03-21 12:42

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][25]. Core Viewpoints - The consumer data for January and February 2025 shows a positive trend, with retail sales reaching 83,731 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, indicating initial success of consumption-boosting policies [3][4]. - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" has been introduced, aiming to provide multi-dimensional support for consumption growth, which is expected to stabilize consumer confidence and enhance market quality [4][3]. - Various data points indicate stable performance, with the service industry production index growing by 5.6% year-on-year in January and February 2025, and the service PMI at 50.3% and 50.0% respectively [4][3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Macro Data - Retail sales in January and February 2025 increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with catering revenue up by 4.3% [1][4]. - The service sector PMI for January and February was 50.3% and 50.0%, respectively, indicating stable business activity [1][4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel demand, such as Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism [3]. - Companies in the business and exhibition sector, like Miao Exhibition, are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [3]. - Other recommended companies include Tianmu Lake, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performing Arts, and various hotel chains that will benefit from the recovery in travel and entertainment [3].