“美国例外论”走下神坛

Market Performance - In 2024, the US stock market saw a strong performance with the S&P 500 index increasing by over 23% for the year, reaching record highs[3] - However, entering 2025, the market's trading logic has shifted significantly, leading to a slowdown in upward momentum[4] - The S&P 500 index experienced a correction in February-March 2025, with a decline exceeding 10%, which is more severe than the 8% drop in July-August 2024[6] Economic Factors - The GDP growth forecast for Q1 2025 has been continuously downgraded, with estimates falling to -2.83% from a previous positive growth expectation[31] - Weak consumer spending and declining corporate earnings have dampened market confidence, contributing to the overall economic slowdown[6] - The Trump administration's trade policies have increased uncertainty, affecting global capital flows and investor sentiment towards the US market[6] Investment Strategy - The forecast for the S&P 500's peak in 2025 has been revised down from 6700 to 6400, indicating limited upside potential[5] - Investors are advised to adopt a more defensive allocation strategy, reducing exposure to high-volatility assets and increasing holdings in safe-haven assets like gold[6] - Key support levels to monitor include 5500 points; if the S&P 500 falls below 5300 points, further risk exposure reduction is recommended[6] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is facing valuation adjustments due to emerging technologies reshaping the competitive landscape, leading to a reassessment of US tech stocks' long-term dominance[6] - Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities are expected to provide more stable returns amid market volatility[55]