XIAOMI(01810) 第一上海证券·2025-03-21 14:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 67.8, indicating a potential upside of 20.06% from the current price of HKD 56.50 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 48.8% year-on-year for Q4 2024, achieving a revenue of RMB 109 billion, with a net profit increase of 90.4% to RMB 9 billion, surpassing market expectations [2]. - The management anticipates a revenue growth rate exceeding 30% for 2025, supported by increased investment in research and development, with an expected expenditure of RMB 30 billion, of which 25% will be allocated to AI [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, with smartphone revenue reaching RMB 51.3 billion, a 16.0% increase, and an average selling price (ASP) of RMB 1,202, marking a 10.1% year-on-year increase [2]. Revenue and Profitability - IoT revenue grew by 51.7% to RMB 30.9 billion, benefiting from national subsidies, with a gross margin of 20.5% [3]. - Internet services revenue increased by 18.5% to RMB 9.3 billion, with a gross margin of 76.5% [3]. - The automotive segment generated RMB 16.7 billion in revenue, with an ASP of RMB 234,000, and the company has raised its delivery target for 2025 to 350,000 vehicles [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 496.5 billion, RMB 638.3 billion, and RMB 740.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 40 billion, RMB 51.5 billion, and RMB 64.5 billion for the same years [5][6]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.42, reflecting a growth of 53.46% compared to 2024 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to expand its retail presence, aiming to open 5,000 new stores in China and enter overseas markets with a target of 10,000 stores in five years [3]. - The successful launch of high-end models like the 15 Ultra has significantly boosted sales, with a year-on-year increase of 80% in units sold [2].