Hesai(HSAI) 东吴证券·2025-03-21 14:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of 720 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 170 million yuan, marking a turnaround from the previous quarter. The gross margin was 39.0%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year and 8.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The guidance for 2025 revenue is set at 3 to 3.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 44% to 69%, with a gross margin target of 40% and Non-GAAP net profit expected to be between 350 million to 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2455% to 3550% [2] Summary by Sections ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) - In Q4, the company shipped 193,000 ADAS laser radars, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with total shipments for the year reaching 456,000 units, up 134% year-on-year. The company achieved a milestone with a top European OEM for a project covering both new energy and fuel vehicles, expected to span from 2025 to 2030+. The ATX product is set for mass production in Q1 2025, with 11 OEMs already secured, contributing to the democratization of intelligent driving [3] General Robotics - The company saw a 294% year-on-year increase in shipments of lawn mowing robots in Q4, totaling 29,000 units, with annual shipments reaching 455,000 units, a 67% increase. The global market for lawn mowing robots is approximately 1.5 billion USD, with North America having a penetration rate of less than 5%. The company anticipates rapid growth in this segment, driven by technological advancements and the resolution of initial wiring challenges [4] Production Capacity and Financial Guidance - The company plans to launch two new production lines in Q1 2025, with production expected to start in Q3 2025, increasing total capacity to 2 million units by the end of 2025. The guidance for 2025 includes a shipment target of 200,000 units in Q1 and an annual total of 1.2 to 1.5 million units, including 200,000 units of general robotics and over 100,000 units of ATX. The revenue guidance for 2025 is set at 3 to 3.5 billion yuan, with a gross margin target of 40% and Non-GAAP net profit expected to be between 350 million to 500 million yuan, exceeding market expectations [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's expected net profit for 2025 and 2026 from 10 million and 60 million USD to 30 million and 70 million USD, respectively, with a forecast of 120 million USD for 2027. The current market capitalization corresponds to P/E ratios of 72, 33, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]