Wintrue Holding(002539) 国信证券·2025-03-23 13:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][20]. Core Views - The company's main business is operating steadily, with the phosphate fertilizer business showing robust development and an integrated layout continuously improving. However, the performance has been dragged down by the soda ash and trading segments. The net cash outflow from investment activities has significantly improved [1][9]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20.381 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 804 million yuan, down 9.80% year-on-year. The gross margin and net margin remained stable at 10.71% and 4.02%, respectively [1][9]. - The decline in performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 was primarily due to the off-season for compound fertilizer sales and a drop in soda ash prices. The trading business revenue decreased by 38.96% year-on-year, further impacting overall revenue [1][9]. Summary by Sections Phosphate Fertilizer Business - The company sold 4.1779 million tons of phosphate fertilizers in 2024, generating revenue of 11.43 billion yuan, which represents increases of 10.59% and 13.25% year-on-year, respectively. The revenue from new compound fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers reached 6.69 billion yuan, up 22.77% year-on-year [2][14]. - The average price of compound fertilizers increased from 2,671 yuan/ton to 2,736 yuan/ton, with the gross margin rising from 12.98% in 2023 to 14.12% in 2024. The company expects further improvements in gross margins due to continuous high-end product development and decreasing production costs [2][14]. Soda Ash Segment - The supply-demand imbalance in the soda ash market persists, with the average price in 2024 at 1,882 yuan/ton, down 25.49% from 2,525 yuan/ton in 2023. The sales volume slightly decreased by 6.48% year-on-year to 582,100 tons [3][15]. - The gross margin for the soda ash segment fell to 15.65%, a decline of 11.63 percentage points compared to 2023. The outlook for 2025 remains pressured due to expected new production capacity and weak demand [3][15]. Yellow Phosphorus Segment - The average price of yellow phosphorus in 2024 was 23,033 yuan/ton, down 8.37% from 25,136 yuan/ton in 2023. The gross margin for yellow phosphorus products was 17.5%, a decrease of 3.88 percentage points year-on-year [17]. - With strict controls on new production capacity and improving downstream demand, yellow phosphorus prices are expected to rise [17]. Investment Activities and Cash Flow - The company has made significant progress in its investment activities, with net cash outflow from investment activities decreasing by 42.13% year-on-year to 2.068 billion yuan in 2024. This improvement indicates a better cash flow situation for the company [1][9]. - The company is actively enhancing its upstream resource layout, including the construction of a 700,000-ton synthetic ammonia project, which will improve self-sufficiency in nitrogen fertilizer raw materials [19][20]. Profit Forecast - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 853 million yuan, 972 million yuan, and 1.119 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 14.0%, and 15.1% [4][20].