高盛：中国房地产周报综述：一手房销售进一步改善，二手房市场趋于稳定

Investment Rating - The report provides a mixed investment rating for various developers, with specific recommendations such as "Sell" for China Vanke and "Buy" for COLI and CR Land [65][66]. Core Insights - The primary sales in the property market have shown improvement, with a 19% week-over-week increase and a 15% year-over-year increase, particularly in tier-2 cities and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region [7][25]. - Secondary transactions have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 2% week-over-week but a 13% year-over-year increase, indicating a divergence in price expectations between agents and homeowners [42]. - The easing measures have led to a significant increase in primary and secondary sales volumes, with primary sales up 32% week-over-week and 52% above pre-easing levels [3][11]. Summary by Sections Inventory and Sales - Guangzhou has initiated an affordable housing program, launching pilot projects that convert completed inventory into saleable units, totaling over 1,300 units [1]. - The overall inventory balance has decreased by 0.1% week-over-week and 1.5% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.3 [52][55]. Market Performance - Year-to-date, primary gross floor area (GFA) sold has increased by 7% year-over-year, although it remains down 26% and 15% compared to 2023 and 2022 levels, respectively [10][39]. - The report indicates that top-100 developers' presales likely improved by 8% year-over-year in March, compared to a 2% increase in February [10]. Completions and New Starts - The monthly GSPC tracker suggests a teen-level year-over-year decline in completions for March 2025, with expectations of a 25% year-over-year decline in new starts [57][66]. - Home appliance sales are expected to show improvement based on secondary sales trends in approximately 20 cities [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights that offshore developers are trading at an average 31% discount to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV), while onshore developers are at a 21% discount [66].